Most populous country in the world8/11/2023 In particular, it pointed to governments trying to influence fertility rates through family planning targets and policies, which can fuel gender-based forms of discrimination. In its report, UNFPA said that while reaching the milestone of 8 billion people on the planet was a reminder that more people are living longer, healthier lives, concerns over the number had increased anxiety among governments and led more to adopt policies aimed at influencing fertility rates. “There will be social unrest if it cannot create enough employment in a relatively short period of time.” “India is sitting on a time bomb,” Chandrasekhar Sripada, professor of organizational behavior at the Indian School of Business, told CNN earlier this year. By comparison, the rates for China and the United States stood at 68% and 61% respectively in the same year. India’s labor force participation rate, an estimation of the active workforce and people looking for work, stood at 46%, which is among the lowest in Asia, according to 2021 data from the World Bank. Already, data show a growing number of Indians are not even looking for work, given the lack of opportunities and low wages. This number is expected to hit more than 1 billion over the next decade, according to the Indian government.īut these numbers could become a liability if policymakers do not create enough jobs, experts warned. India’s working-age population stands at more than 900 million, according to 2021 data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “A country’s demographic dividend depends not only on the total number, but also on the quality not only on the population, but also on the talent,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters Wednesday when asked about the latest UN projection. Along with the flagging population data, China also reported one of its worst economic growth numbers in nearly half a century last year, underscoring the steep challenges the country faces as its labor force shrinks and the ranks of the retired swell.īeijing’s leaders have sought to downplay the significance of being overtaken by India. India overtaking China will have significant economic implications for both Asian giants. The birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 a year earlier and the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. But, contrary to public perception, population growth has been slowing in both countries - particularly in China, which recorded a population decline for the first time in six decades last year.Ĭhina’s population fell in 2022 to 1.411 billion, down some 850,000 people from the previous year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). ![]() In view of the demographic crisis, China stopped the one-child policy in 2016 and allowed two children, but it has had very limited impact to halt the declining population as few people came forward to have a second child.Ĭhina is expected to lift all restrictions on the number of children that a couple can have.ĭon’t miss out on ET Prime stories! Get your daily dose of business updates on WhatsApp.China and India together will account for more than a third of the estimated global population, which is expected to hit 8.045 billion by mid-year, the UN report said. "Without strong policy intervention, China's new-born population is likely to fall below 10 million in the next few years, and its fertility rate will be lower than Japan's, perhaps the lowest in the world," Liang predicted. "According to the existing data, in the next 10 years, the number of women aged 22 to 35, which is the childbearing period, will drop by more than 30 per cent compared with the present data", he said. Liang Jianzhang, an economics professor at Peking University, told the Global Times that China's fertility rate will continue to drop in the coming years, and may become the world's lowest. ![]() The global fertility rate was 2.5 in 2019, as per the UN's World Fertility and Family Planning, 2020, report. ![]() ![]() Some demographers believe the peak may come as soon as 2022.Ĭhina is also facing the risk of falling into the trap of low fertility, as it recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth consecutive year.Ĭhina's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, a relatively low level. Lu Jiehua, professor of sociology at Peking University, said China's population may peak by 2027 before it starts to decline.
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